We've been witnessing at least one of the more unique college football seasons of all time, and it reaches a conclusion on Monday night in Miami Gardens, Florida. Hard Rock Stadium marks the situation where No. 1 Alabama will combat No. 3 Ohio State within the College Football Playoff National Championship. it's not the primary time these schools have met during this event, but it's the primary time they're going to play for the national title.
In 2014, the primary year of the playoff, No. 4 Ohio State upset No. 1 Alabama, 42-35, within the dish semifinal. The Buckeyes went on to beat Oregon the subsequent week to win the national title. They haven't been back to a title game since. Meanwhile, this may be Alabama's fifth appearance within the six years since with the Crimson Tide looking to win their third crown since 2015.
So, what is going on to happen this time? Alabama may be a sizable favorite that supported the spread, and if we glance at the entire, we should always expect tons of points to be scored. Let's take a glance at the least available bets and find out which of them are best.
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Latest Odds:
Alabama Crimson Tide -8.5
Spread (Alabama -8): the road opened with Alabama at -7.5 but has grown because the game approaches. Odds are this is often due both to public action (casual, public bettors tend to love favorites) and therefore the news of a possible postponement to the sport. it had been reported earlier within the week that Ohio State was handling COVID-19 issues that would leave it too short-handed to play Monday. The concerns were alleviated a touch by Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith saying the varsity intends to play as scheduled. Still, if the sport is played Monday, we do not skills it impacts the Ohio State roster.
Will the Buckeyes be missing a variety of key starters? And if so, what positions are going to be affected? it is vital information to possess when handicapping a game, but it is also important to recollect that this is not the primary time Ohio State has addressed such issues. The Buckeyes had three games postponed this year thanks to COVID-19, and one among them (against Illinois) was thanks to an epidemic on their roster. They returned every week later against Michigan State, missing half their offensive line and other players, and won 52-12. a few weeks later, against Northwestern within the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes were missing star players like receiver Chris Olave and linebacker Baron Browning. They won then, too, just not as convincingly.
Even last week against Clemson, it had been Ohio State without a couple of players that also managed to win convincingly, 49-28. Still, whilst good as Clemson could also be, Alabama may be a different case entirely. Assuming large chunks of the roster aren't missing, this is often an Ohio State team capable of giving Alabama problems. The Crimson Tide is an absolute juggernaut all season. Their offense is led by three players who finished within the top five of Heisman Trophy voting with the winner in wide receiver DeVonta Smith also as quarterback Mac Jones and back Najee Harris. They even have one among the simplest offensive lines within the country, and oh yeah, they could get WR Jaylen Waddle back in the week also.
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So, long story short, you are not getting to stop the Alabama offense. It's getting to get a minimum of 35 points, and your only hope is to contain as many big plays as possible. At the top of the day, you would like to outscore Alabama, which is difficult to try to not only because the offense is prolific but also because its defense has been terrific. It ranks 13th nationally in points allowed per game with 19, though more advanced defensive metrics like SP+ rank it fifth nationally.
If you check out how Alabama has performed this season, two games stand out as struggles. the primary was back in October when Ole Miss put up 48 points, and therefore the last was within the SEC Championship Game when Florida scored 46. Those are two offenses that will stretch the sector vertically with their pass. The Notre Dame offense Alabama faced last week cannot do this. This Ohio State offense -- featuring QB Justin Fields and WRs Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson -- can do exactly that.
Furthermore, Ohio State's offense runs the ball more effectively than either of these teams. The emergence of Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon (636 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns within the last three games) has added another dimension to the Ohio State offense and takes tons of the load off Justin Fields' shoulders. The Buckeyes should be ready to move the ball and score on this Alabama defense. this is often why, with the knowledge available now, the Buckeyes cover the spread. Pick: Ohio State +8
Total (75): If we glance at both these teams, the over has been a sensible bet for both this season. The over is 7-5 in Alabama's 12 games, and it's 4-2-1 in Ohio State's seven. What's more relevant to the present discussion, however, is that the points involved in those games.
There has been a mean of 67.2 points scored in Alabama's 12 games this season. Only three of Alabama's games featured quite the 75 points during this total. There was its 52-24 convert Texas A&M, the 63-48 convert Ole Miss, and therefore the 52-46 convert Florida. this is able to be the fourth time Alabama has played a game with a complete within the 70s, and they've gone over in two of the three (Ole Miss, Florida). The third, against Arkansas, finished 15.5 points below the projected total.
On the Ohio State side, its games have featured a mean of 65.4 points. Of the seven games the Buckeyes have played, three have gone over this 75-point total also. There was a 49-27 convert Rutgers, a 42-35 convert Indiana, and last week's 49-28 convert Clemson. None of these games featured a complete this high. the entire of 69 in last week's semifinal against Clemson was the very best.
Now, if we move to the school Football Playoff National Championship itself, we see this is often the very best total for any title game within the event's seven years. The previous high was within the 2014 game between Ohio State in Oregon, which was set at 72.5; the teams finished well below that with 62 points. the typical total for the primary six title games has been 57.8 points, and therefore the average title game has finished with 64.8 points. the sole title game to end with quite 75 points scored was at the top of the 2015 season when Alabama beat Clemson, 45-40.
These are two prolific offenses capable of matching that feat, which is why the entire is so high. But considering the history and therefore the stakes, the neatest play here is to require the under. It'll likely be a terrifying ride, but sometimes you've got to try to do what you've got to try to to. Pick: Under 75
Special sides: While I even have Ohio State covering the full-game spread, I prefer Alabama's value within the half-moon. All season long, Ohio State has been a slower-starting team within the half-moon, and it picks up within the second quarter. within the half-moon, the Buckeyes offense ranks 10th nationally, scoring 10.4 points per game; however, the defense ranks 40th, allowing 4.9 points. within the second quarter, Ohio State ranks third nationally with 14.9 points scored, and therefore the defense leaps to first nationally, allowing only 2.9 points. Compare that to Alabama, which ranks third nationally in points scored per game within the half-moon (12.2) and 14th on defense with only 3.1 points allowed. supported those trends, the chances favor Alabama having a lead after the primary quarter-hour.
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